These are then used to calculate the probability distribution of electoral votes corresponding to all 2.3 quadrillion possible combinations.
Between now and Election Day, think of the Meta-Analysis as a precise snapshot of where the race stands at any given time.
In late October the Meta-Analysis should come quite close to the actual outcome.
Starting in 2012, this site also provides a prediction (see essay 1 essay 2) based on the current year’s polls and the amount of variation observed in similar past races. It has the specific advantage of not relying on poorly-justified assumptions such as econometric conditions.
It relies only on polls, which are the only direct measure of opinion.
The approach taken in both popular and political science models introduces more noise than signal, as discussed in this essay.
What’s different about this analysis in 2012 compared with 2008?The main difference is the addition of a prediction for Election Day as described above.What was different about this analysis in 2008 compared with 2004? First, the Meta-Analysis relies entirely on the well-established principle that the median of multiple state polls is an excellent predictor of actual voter behavior. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, they are something every business needs to do.I’ve been through a ton of website launches, so it’s kind of a ho-hum process now.But even if I go into a website launch with a nonchalant attitude, something usually happens—something unexpected.